Where is the market headed for

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The Indian market (BSE sensex and Nifty) had one of the biggest falls of this year. The fall of the 435 points in the sensex was basically tracking the fall in US stock indices starting this week

The US stock indices after averaging gains of almost 40% since the March 6 lows have been unable to resume the upward journey for the last 2 weeks.

Rising oil prices and the fall in the US$ have again revived concerns in the financial media about whether the 'green shoots' recovery will continue.

If one would look at the pattern of rise in the US markets during the last 3 weeks, the uptrend is quite feeble and not supported by rising volumes

Looking at conspiracy theories, most of the US financial system's secondary offerings are complete or nearing completion. Goldman Sachs is perhaps the only major offering among the financial titans remaining. Market may not fall sharply till then. It is possible to conjecture that July and later, any artificial props for the US market may be put away exposing the market indices to further downside

As there is no ground-level support for the 'green shoots' theory, that may start biting the market

This is crystal ball gazing from a fundamentalist perspective. Chartists may have something else to say

Looks like the most likely market direction is downward, but hopefully not a crash

Indian markets may most likely follow the same direction. Not much cheer can be expected from the June quarter results for India Inc. The only hope now for the markets is some positive surprises from the Budget

Happy market watching

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