SQ - Square - Will, whether and when the patience of its investors be rewarded

It has not been a great time to be an investor in SQ - Square, the payments and point-of-sale solutions provider for the United States and internationally whose commerce ecosystem includes point-of-sale software and hardware that offers sellers, payment and point-of-sale solutions.

After its recovery from the post December 2018 lows, it price has not been able to scale past or even attempt to regain the life-time highs of low $100's, that it reached prior to the Nov-Dec 2018 crash. While it is well off the 52 W lows of $32, it still has way to go before retaking the current 52 W high of $87. It is frustrating to see its peers like SHOP - Shopify and PYPL - Paypal scaling new 52 W highs and getting near it, while SQ pretty much looks to be languishing in the $ 50-60's range.

Since small business is the mainstay of  Square, it is going to feel the impact of the current unraveling recession that is disproportionately hitting small and medium businesses, more than SHOP or PYPL. Square is also trying to be many things to many small business, unlike the more focused offering from SHOP.   

SHOP could be very well in bubble territory with its forward P/E of  a negative multiple to 5766 depending upon which EPS estimate you go with. Even going with more controversial sales multiples  like P/S @ 40, does not make it less risky. But as long as the market keeps chasing SHOP and drives it to stratospheric heights, it is likely to cloud sentiment for and crowd out the bullishness for SQ.

Unfortunately for SQ, right now there is more bearish commentary than bullish ones on the analyst or sell/buy side, which as sentiment indicators don't bode well for its short term price prospects.

I have been a investor in SQ for long time now since its breakouts in mid-2018. It has been roller coaster ride and cumulatively not a winning position so far. But as an ex-investor in PYPL, and getting out of it just when its long term uptrend was forming, it has been a sobering experience in misreading of long term trends in the intersection of business services and Fin-tech.

SQ could be right now at the crossroads of multiple emerging trends in finance, banking and technology and it will be some tough crystal ball gazing and forecasting to see how well it rides and leverages those trends both in terms of customer growth, monetization and profitability. Despite the challenges and stumbles involved in this, it would be too early to give up on the promise and potential that Square has.